Showing posts with label Forex. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forex. Show all posts
Tuesday, 29 November 2011
Friday, 4 November 2011
Powerful & FREE Indicator
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Indicator Catches Market Bottoms And Tops and Identifies Trends
After 5 years of research and studying countless charts and commodities , our team of elite scientists have developed the DYNAMIC RANGE INDICATOR™. This one-of-a-kind indicator has a great aim: Catching market bottoms and tops. This may seem like a tough goal for an indicator, but the DYNAMIC RANGE INDICATOR™ achieves this goal with 95% accuracy!
Tuesday, 4 October 2011
The Inverse Relationship Between the Dollar and Stocks
With interest rates nearly at zero percent in the U.S., global investors seeking higher risks and returns are borrowing dollars to invest in higher yielding instruments such as stocks and commodities leading to a strong inverse relationship between the S&P 500 [.SPX 1100.05
0.82 (+0.07%)
] and the Dollar Index [.DXY 79.29
-0.14 (-0.17%)
] in 2009.
The Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar against a basket of six leading currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF, SEK) is trading at a 15-month low, as it tumbled on Wednesday November 25 to an intraday low of 74.23, its weakest level since 8/7/08. In the past week, the dollar fell to a 14-year low against the yen as it traded around 84.92 Japanese yen per USD on 11/27, its lowest level since July 1995, and down ~3.7% year-to-date. The dollar is also significantly weaker against other major currencies such as the euro, trading well above $1.5 per euro in recent trading sessions and falling to a 15-month low against the currency. The euro has appreciated ~7.8% against the dollar year to date.
The inverse relationship between the dollar and stocks is statistically significant with a negative correlation coefficient of -0.81 for the year and almost a perfect -1 in recent months. This is atypical when compared to other points in history. For example, the correlation coefficient was only -0.43 in 2008. See the chart below how the two move opposite one another, particularly since the summer.
Looking back over the past decade, 2004 was also a notable year that showed a large inverse relationship between the S&P and the Dollar with a correlation coefficient of -0.71. The Dollar Index fell -6.98% that year while the S&P gained 8.99%. Like today, interest rates were notably low towards the end of 2003 to mid 2004 as the Fed had an easing period that led to a Fed Funds target rate of 1%. As the Fed began to raise rates, the relationship weakened. Fortunately, the economy had picked up enough to keep the stock market rising, even with a rising dollar.
According to the central bank’s FOMC Minutes in late November, rates are suppose to remain low for an “extended period of time”, meaning that the dollar could continue to depreciate until the Fed’s begins tightening. Many analysts expect that rates may not increase until the second half of 2010. If the relationship holds, stocks may have more room for growth.
Not only has the dollar vulnerability contributed to stronger US equity performance, but it has also buoyed currency ETF’s. ETF’s such as CurrencyShares Australia Dollar Trust [FXA 95.9498
0.4798 (+0.5%)
] and Wisdom Tree Dreyfus New Zealand Dollar Fund [BNZ 23.41
0.1968 (+0.85%)
] are up 29.9% and 26.2% for the year so far. (See table below for a list Currency related ETF’s and YTD performance)
Thursday, 29 September 2011
What is the Best Technical Analysis Charting Software?
The choice of the best technical analysis charting software very much depends on an investor's, trader's or chartist's needs and trading style. The financial instrument traded does not really play a major part in the decision process as almost all technical analysis (TA) software can chart stocks, bonds, commodities, forex, futures and options without any problems. As long as basic OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) market data-feed is available, you're in business. All the TA software discussed below are capable of displaying chart types like OHLC, Line and Candlesticks, and also various standard technical indicators like MACD, RSI, Stochastics, Moving Averages and Fibonaccis, to name a few. Some of these software also contain some esoteric technical indicators like Bressert DSS, Woodie's pivots and Andrew's Pitchfork.
There are basically 3 types of Technical Analysis charting software. They are the End of Day (EOD), the Real-Time and the Analytics or Algorithmic Trading software (read Trading Charting Software for more details).
Another interesting software in this category is TradingSolutions. It is a financial analysis and investment software that combines technical analysis with neural network and genetic algorithms. It has the ability to learn patterns from historical data, allowing you to create highly accurate trading systems that inform you when to buy and sell for the various types of financial markets, including stocks, futures and currencies (FOREX).
There are basically 3 types of Technical Analysis charting software. They are the End of Day (EOD), the Real-Time and the Analytics or Algorithmic Trading software (read Trading Charting Software for more details).
End-of-Day Technical Analysis Charting Software
In this segment, there are two charting software that are head and shoulders above the rest of the competition. They are Metastock and NeoTicker EOD. Other than displaying stunning charts of stock trends, these software tools allow you to easily program trading systems and backtest them against historical financial data. They also include a multitude of technical analysis indicators that are sufficient for the most demanding of traders. Tradestation used to be a standalone product, very similar to Metastock, but since they are now integrated with a brokerage account, they are more of a real-time automated trading software.Real-Time Technical Analysis Charting Software
The undoubted kingpins in this area are Reuters and Bloomberg, but these systems are normally used by professional money managers and are just too expensive for the regular investors or traders. eSignal is one of the better real-time software which is very popular amongst active traders and which is packed with loads of technical analysis features (read eSignal review). In terms of price and functionality however, one of the best real-time technical analysis software is Medved QuoteTracker. Other than providing the best "bang for the buck", the other main notable feature of QuoteTracker is its seamless integration with data-feeds and integrated trading features from online brokers like Interactive Brokers, optionsXpress and Ameritrade.Analytical/Algorithmic Technical Analysis Charting Software
If "on-the-fly" real-time technical analysis scanning is what is required, it is difficult to beat the capabilities of NinjaTrader, Tradestation and NeoTicker. These software enable active traders to scan, in real-time, thousands of securities in search of ones that meet pre-programmed technical and fundamental analysis criteria. NinjaTrader and Tradestation also have the capability to automatically manage trades i.e. set profit targets, stop loss and trailing stops based on the trader's pre-programmed strategy using NinjaScript or Easy Language respectively. Another notable alternative in this segment is a lesser known but very capable software called StockWatch Pro. Both these analytics software can use a variety of data-feeds including live datafeeds from eSignal and QCharts. ** Note: StockWatch Pro's website at Crontech seems to have been taken down. It's a pity as this was such a capable piece of software.Another interesting software in this category is TradingSolutions. It is a financial analysis and investment software that combines technical analysis with neural network and genetic algorithms. It has the ability to learn patterns from historical data, allowing you to create highly accurate trading systems that inform you when to buy and sell for the various types of financial markets, including stocks, futures and currencies (FOREX).
Data-Feed for TA Charting Software
The data-feed is the lifeblood of any TA software so choosing a high quality feed will ensure that your investment in a TA software will not be in vain. Remember, "Garbage in, garbage out". Good real-time or EOD data-feeds like Reuters and Standard and Poors are expensive but they do get the job done. There are also some very good alternative data-feeds like eSignal, IQFeed and Stockwatch which are acceptable in quality and are quite reasonably priced (in the range of $20-$100 monthly). Most online brokers also provide a data-feed (usually for a nominal monthly fee) which can be of high quality. One such broker is Interactive Brokers, which provides a hardy real-time market data-feed for use in 3rd party charting front-ends like Medved QuoteTracker. A good test for a data-feed is to see how it performs during high intensive trading periods for e.g. like Fed Interest rate decision days. Data from a poor feed provider will lag badly during these periods. If just a free streaming service is required, you can't go wrong with ADVFN, who offer FREE streaming stocks and shares data from around the world
Sunday, 25 September 2011
Thursday, 15 September 2011
Wednesday, 14 September 2011
Most traded currencies by value
Currency distribution of global foreign exchange market turnover
| Rank | Currency | ISO 4217 code (Symbol) | % daily share (April 2010) |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | USD ($) | 84.9% | |
2 | EUR (€) | 39.1% | |
3 | JPY (¥) | 19.0% | |
4 | GBP (£) | 12.9% | |
5 | AUD ($) | 7.6% | |
6 | CHF (Fr) | 6.4% | |
7 | CAD ($) | 5.3% | |
8 | HKD ($) | 2.4% | |
9 | SEK (kr) | 2.2% | |
10 | NZD ($) | 1.6% | |
11 | KRW (₩) | 1.5% | |
12 | SGD ($) | 1.4% | |
13 | NOK (kr) | 1.3% | |
14 | MXN ($) | 1.3% | |
15 | INR ( | 0.9% | |
| Other | 12.2% | ||
| Total[8] | 200% | ||
Australian dollar
The Australian dollar is popular with currency traders, because of the comparatively high interest rates in Australia, the relative freedom of the foreign exchange market from government intervention, the general stability of Australia's economy and political system, and the prevailing view that the Australian dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies, especially because of its greater exposure to Asian economies and the commodities cycle.[4] The currency is commonly referred to by foreign-exchange traders as the "Aussie."
Value of the Australian dollar
In 1966, when the Australian dollar was introduced, the international currency relationships were maintained under the Bretton Woods system, a fixed exchange rate system using a U.S. dollar standard. The Australian dollar, however, was effectively pegged to the British pound at an equivalent value of approximately 1 gram of gold.
The highest valuation of the Australian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar was during the period of the peg to the U.S. dollar. On 9 September 1973, the peg was adjusted to US$1.4875, the fluctuation limits being changed to US$1.485 - US$1.490[9]; on both 7 December 1973 and 10 December 1973, the noon buying rate in New York City for cable transfers payable in foreign currencies reached its highest point of 1.4885 U.S. dollars to one Australian dollar.[10]
On Monday 12 December 1983, the Australian dollar was floated, allowing its value to fluctuate dependent on supply and demand on international money markets. The decision was made on 8 December 1983 and announced on 9 December 1983. [11]
In the two decades that followed, its highest value relative to the US dollar was $0.881 in December 1988. The lowest ever value of the Australian dollar after it was floated was 47.75 US cents in April 2001.[12] It returned to above 96 US cents in June 2008,[13] and reached 98.49 later that year. Although the value of the Australian dollar fell significantly from this high towards the end of 2008, it gradually recovered in 2009 to 94 US cents.
On 15 October 2010, the Australian dollar reached parity with the US dollar for the first time since becoming a freely traded currency, trading above US$1 for a few seconds.[14] The currency then traded above parity for a sustained period of several days in November, and fluctuated around that mark into 2011.[15] On 2 May 2011 the Australian Dollar hit a record high since the floating of the dollar. It traded at a $1.1011 against the US Dollar. [16] Some have even suggested the dollar could rise as high as 1.70 USD by 2014. [17]
Some commentators claim that the value of the dollar in 2011 is related to Europe's sovereign debt crisis, and Australia's strong ties with material importers in Asia and in particular China.[18]
Economists posit that commodity prices are the dominant driver of the Australian dollar, and this means changes in exchange rates of the Australian dollar occur in ways opposite to many other currencies.[19] For decades, Australia's balance of trade has depended primarily upon commodity exports such as minerals and agricultural products. This means the relative value of the dollar varies significantly during the business cycle, rallying during global booms as Australia exports raw materials, and falling when mineral prices slump or when domestic spending overshadows the export earnings outlook. This movement is in the opposite direction to reserve currencies, which tend to be stronger during market slumps as traders move value from falling stocks into cash.
Although not considered a reserve currency, high volatility and its unorthodox movement in exchange rates has contributed to the AUD's status as one of the most traded currencies in the world.[4] Other factors include a relative lack of central bank intervention, and general stability of the Australian economy and government
Exchange rate policies
Prior to 1983, Australia maintained a fixed exchange rate. The first peg was between the Australian and British pounds, initially at par, and later at 0.8 GBP (16 shillings sterling). This reflected its historical ties as well as a view about the stability in value of the British pound. From 1946 to 1971, Australia maintained a peg under the Bretton Woods system, a fixed exchange rate system that pegged the U.S. dollar to gold, but the Australian dollar was effectively pegged to sterling until 1967.
With the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, Australia converted the traditional peg to a fluctuating rate against the US dollar. In September 1974, Australia valued the dollar against a basket of currencies called the trade weighted index (TWI) in an effort to reduce the fluctuations associated with its tie to the US dollar.[21] The daily TWI valuation was changed in November 1976 to a periodically adjusted valuation.
On 12 December 1983, the Australian Labor government led by Prime Minister Bob Hawke and Treasurer Paul Keating floated the Australian dollar, with the exchange rate reflecting the balance of payments and other market drivers.
Value of the Australian dollar
In 1966, when the Australian dollar was introduced, the international currency relationships were maintained under the Bretton Woods system, a fixed exchange rate system using a U.S. dollar standard. The Australian dollar, however, was effectively pegged to the British pound at an equivalent value of approximately 1 gram of gold.
The highest valuation of the Australian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar was during the period of the peg to the U.S. dollar. On 9 September 1973, the peg was adjusted to US$1.4875, the fluctuation limits being changed to US$1.485 - US$1.490[9]; on both 7 December 1973 and 10 December 1973, the noon buying rate in New York City for cable transfers payable in foreign currencies reached its highest point of 1.4885 U.S. dollars to one Australian dollar.[10]
On Monday 12 December 1983, the Australian dollar was floated, allowing its value to fluctuate dependent on supply and demand on international money markets. The decision was made on 8 December 1983 and announced on 9 December 1983. [11]
In the two decades that followed, its highest value relative to the US dollar was $0.881 in December 1988. The lowest ever value of the Australian dollar after it was floated was 47.75 US cents in April 2001.[12] It returned to above 96 US cents in June 2008,[13] and reached 98.49 later that year. Although the value of the Australian dollar fell significantly from this high towards the end of 2008, it gradually recovered in 2009 to 94 US cents.
On 15 October 2010, the Australian dollar reached parity with the US dollar for the first time since becoming a freely traded currency, trading above US$1 for a few seconds.[14] The currency then traded above parity for a sustained period of several days in November, and fluctuated around that mark into 2011.[15] On 2 May 2011 the Australian Dollar hit a record high since the floating of the dollar. It traded at a $1.1011 against the US Dollar. [16] Some have even suggested the dollar could rise as high as 1.70 USD by 2014. [17]
Some commentators claim that the value of the dollar in 2011 is related to Europe's sovereign debt crisis, and Australia's strong ties with material importers in Asia and in particular China.[18]
Economists posit that commodity prices are the dominant driver of the Australian dollar, and this means changes in exchange rates of the Australian dollar occur in ways opposite to many other currencies.[19] For decades, Australia's balance of trade has depended primarily upon commodity exports such as minerals and agricultural products. This means the relative value of the dollar varies significantly during the business cycle, rallying during global booms as Australia exports raw materials, and falling when mineral prices slump or when domestic spending overshadows the export earnings outlook. This movement is in the opposite direction to reserve currencies, which tend to be stronger during market slumps as traders move value from falling stocks into cash.
Although not considered a reserve currency, high volatility and its unorthodox movement in exchange rates has contributed to the AUD's status as one of the most traded currencies in the world.[4] Other factors include a relative lack of central bank intervention, and general stability of the Australian economy and government
Exchange rate policies
Prior to 1983, Australia maintained a fixed exchange rate. The first peg was between the Australian and British pounds, initially at par, and later at 0.8 GBP (16 shillings sterling). This reflected its historical ties as well as a view about the stability in value of the British pound. From 1946 to 1971, Australia maintained a peg under the Bretton Woods system, a fixed exchange rate system that pegged the U.S. dollar to gold, but the Australian dollar was effectively pegged to sterling until 1967.
With the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, Australia converted the traditional peg to a fluctuating rate against the US dollar. In September 1974, Australia valued the dollar against a basket of currencies called the trade weighted index (TWI) in an effort to reduce the fluctuations associated with its tie to the US dollar.[21] The daily TWI valuation was changed in November 1976 to a periodically adjusted valuation.
On 12 December 1983, the Australian Labor government led by Prime Minister Bob Hawke and Treasurer Paul Keating floated the Australian dollar, with the exchange rate reflecting the balance of payments and other market drivers.
Commodity Prices And Currency Movements
Predicting the next move in the markets is the key to making money in trading, but putting this simple concept into action is much harder than it sounds. Professional forex traders have long known that trading currencies requires looking beyond the world of FX. The fact is that currencies are moved by many factors - supply and demand, politics, interest rates, economic growth, and so on. More specifically, since economic growth and exports are directly related to a country's domestic industry, it is natural for some currencies to be heavily correlated with commodity prices. The top three currencies that have the tightest correlations with commodities are the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. Other currencies that are also impacted by commodity prices but have a weaker correlation are the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. Knowing which currency is correlated with what commodity can help traders understand and predict certain market movements. Here we look at currencies correlated with oil and gold and show you how you can use this information in your trading. (For background reading, see The Most Popular Forex Currencies.)
Oil and the Canadian DollarOver the past few years, the price of commodities has fluctuated significantly. Oil, for example, surged from $60 a barrel in 2006 to a high of $147.27 a barrel in 2008 before plummeting back below $40 a barrel in the first quarter of 2009 and rising to above $80 in 2011. Similar volatility can be seen in the price of gold, which hit $1600 an ounce in June 2011 and then a new high of over $1,800 an ounce a few months later in August 2011. With many countries around the world in recession, the trend of commodity prices can mean the difference between a deeper downturn and a faster recovery. Knowing which currencies are affected by what commodities will help you make more educated trading decisions. (Find out how the everyday items you use can affect your investments in Commodities That Move The Markets.)
Oil is one of the world's basic necessities - at least for now, most people in developed countries cannot live without it. In February 2009, the price of oil was nearly 70% below its all-time high of $147.27 set on July 11, 2008. A decline in oil prices is a nightmare for oil producers, while oil consumers enjoy the benefits of greater purchasing power. This is a complete 180-degree change from the situation at the beginning of 2008, when record-high oil prices put a big smile on the faces of oil producers while forcing oil consumers to pinch pennies. There are a number of reasons to explain the fall in oil prices, including a stronger dollar (oil is priced in dollars) and weaker global demand. As a net oil exporter,Canada is severely hurt by declines in oil, while Japan - a major net oil importer - tends to benefit.
Between the years 2006-2009, for example, the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices was approximately 80%. On a day-to-day basis, the correlation can break, but over the long term it has been strong because the value of the Canadian dollar has good reason to be sensitive to the price of oil.Canada is the seventh-largest producer of crude oil in the world and continues to climb up the list, with production in oil sands increasing regularly. In 2000, Canada surpassed Saudi Arabia as the United States ' most significant oil supplier. Unbeknownst to many, the size of Canada 's oil reserves is second only to those in Saudi Arabia . The geographical proximity between the U.S. and Canada, as well as the growing political uncertainty in the Middle East and South America, makes Canada one of the more desirable places from which the U.S. can import oil. But Canada does not service only U.S. demand. The country's vast oil resources are beginning to get a lot of attention from China, especially since Canada stumbled upon a new stash of oil after a reclassification of its Alberta oil sands to the "economically recoverable" category. (Read more in Peak Oil: What To Do When The Wells Run Dry.)
Figure 1 shows the clearly positive relationship between oil and the Canadian loonie. In fact, it should come as no surprise that the price of oil actually acts as a leading indicator for the price action of the CAD/USD. Since the traded instrument is the inverse, or USD/CAD, it's important to note that based on the historical relationship, when oil prices go up, USD/CAD falls and when oil prices go down, USD/CAD rises.
Oil and the Japanese EconomyAt the other end of the spectrum isJapan, which imports nearly all of its oil (compared to the U.S. , which imports approximately 50%). As of 2011, it is the world's third-largest net oil importer behind the U.S. and China . Japan 's lack of domestic sources of energy, and its need to import vast amounts of crude oil, natural gas and other energy resources, make it particularly sensitive to changes in oil prices. Japan also lacks the flexibility to switch to nuclear power because it is a huge net importer of uranium for its nuclear power plants. As of 2008, the country's dependence on imports for primary energy stood at more than 84%. Oil provided Japan with 49% of its total energy needs, coal with 20%, nuclear power 13%, natural gas 14%, hydroelectric power 3% and renewable sources a mere 1%. Therefore, when oil prices skyrocket, the Japanese economy suffers. (Hedge against rising energy prices and diversify your portfolio; read ETFs Provide Easy Access To Energy Commodities.)
An Attractive Oil Play: CAD/JPY Looking at this from a net oil exporter/importer perspective, the currency pair that tops the list of currencies to trade to express a view on oil prices is the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen. Figure 2 illustrates the tight correlation between oil prices and CAD/JPY. More often than not, oil prices tend to be the leading indicator (as with USD/CAD) for CAD/JPY price action with a noticeable delay. As oil prices continued to fall during this period, CAD/JPY broke the 100 level to hit a low of 76.
Going for GoldGold traders may also be surprised to hear that trading the Australian dollar is just like trading gold in many ways. As the world's third-largest producer of gold, the Australian dollar had an 84% positive correlation with the precious metal between 1999 and 2008. Generally speaking, this means that when gold prices rise, the Australian dollar appreciates as well. The proximity ofNew Zealand to Australia makes Australia a preferred destination for exporting New Zealand goods. Therefore, the health of New Zealand 's economy is closely tied to the health of the Australian economy, which explains why the NZD/USD and the AUD/USD have had a 96% positive correlation over the same time period. The correlation of the NZD/USD with gold is slightly less than that of the Australia dollar but is still strong at 78%.
A weaker, but still important, correlation is that of gold prices and the Swiss franc. The country's political neutrality and the fact that its currency used to be backed by gold have made the franc the currency of choice in times of political uncertainty. From January 2006 until January 2009, USD/CHF and gold prices had a 77% positive correlation. However, the relationship broke down somewhat in September 2005 as the U.S. dollar decoupled from gold price movements. (For further reading, see The Gold Standard Revisited and What Is Wrong With Gold?)
Trading Currencies as a Supplement to Trading Oil or GoldFor seasoned commodity traders, it may also be worthwhile to look at trading currencies as an alternative or a supplement to trading commodities. In addition to being able to capitalize on a similar outlook (e.g. higher oil), traders may also be able to earn interest if they are on 2% margin or higher with most brokers. When trading currencies, you are dealing with countries, and countries have interest rates, of course. For example, a trader who may have bought the AUD/USD in March 2009 would be able to earn up to 3% in interest income if Australian interest rates remained at 3.25% andU.S. interest rates remained at 0.25% for the entire year. The 3% comes from taking Australia 's central bank rate, which is the amount earned, and subtracting the nearly 0% rates paid for shorting the U.S. dollar. These are unleveraged rates, which mean that with 10 times leverage, for example, net of any exchange rate changes, the interest income would be that much higher. Leverage also makes the trade riskier, which means that if the trade turns against you, losses will be larger.
Along the same lines, if you shorted AUD/USD to express a short gold view, you would end up paying interest. If you're a commodity trader looking for a bit of a change from the usual pro gold trade (for example), commodity currencies such as the AUD/USD and NZD/USD provide good opportunities worth looking into.
ConclusionIf you want to trade commodity currencies, the best way to use commodity prices in your trading is to always keep one eye on movements in the oil or gold market and the other eye on the currency market to watch how quickly it responds. Due to the slightly delayed impact of these movements on the currency market, there is generally an opportunity to overlay a broader movement that is happening in the commodity market to that of the currency market. Bottom line: It never hurts to be more informed about commodity prices and how they drive currency movements. (For more insight, read The Currency Market Information Edge and Forex: Wading Into The Currency Market.)
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/CommodityCurrencies.asp#ixzz1XYRoxHas
Oil is one of the world's basic necessities - at least for now, most people in developed countries cannot live without it. In February 2009, the price of oil was nearly 70% below its all-time high of $147.27 set on July 11, 2008. A decline in oil prices is a nightmare for oil producers, while oil consumers enjoy the benefits of greater purchasing power. This is a complete 180-degree change from the situation at the beginning of 2008, when record-high oil prices put a big smile on the faces of oil producers while forcing oil consumers to pinch pennies. There are a number of reasons to explain the fall in oil prices, including a stronger dollar (oil is priced in dollars) and weaker global demand. As a net oil exporter,
Between the years 2006-2009, for example, the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices was approximately 80%. On a day-to-day basis, the correlation can break, but over the long term it has been strong because the value of the Canadian dollar has good reason to be sensitive to the price of oil.
Figure 1 shows the clearly positive relationship between oil and the Canadian loonie. In fact, it should come as no surprise that the price of oil actually acts as a leading indicator for the price action of the CAD/USD. Since the traded instrument is the inverse, or USD/CAD, it's important to note that based on the historical relationship, when oil prices go up, USD/CAD falls and when oil prices go down, USD/CAD rises.
| Figure 1: A look at the correlation between the price of oil and the price action in the CAD/USD from January 2005 to March 2009 |
| Source: FXCM |
Oil and the Japanese EconomyAt the other end of the spectrum is
An Attractive Oil Play: CAD/JPY Looking at this from a net oil exporter/importer perspective, the currency pair that tops the list of currencies to trade to express a view on oil prices is the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen. Figure 2 illustrates the tight correlation between oil prices and CAD/JPY. More often than not, oil prices tend to be the leading indicator (as with USD/CAD) for CAD/JPY price action with a noticeable delay. As oil prices continued to fall during this period, CAD/JPY broke the 100 level to hit a low of 76.
| Figure 2: A look at the correlation between the price of oil and the price action in the CAD/JPY from January 2005 to March 2009 |
| Source: FXCM |
Going for GoldGold traders may also be surprised to hear that trading the Australian dollar is just like trading gold in many ways. As the world's third-largest producer of gold, the Australian dollar had an 84% positive correlation with the precious metal between 1999 and 2008. Generally speaking, this means that when gold prices rise, the Australian dollar appreciates as well. The proximity of
| Figure 3: A look at the correlation between the price of gold and the price action in the NZD/USD from January 2005 to March 2009 |
| Source: FXCM |
A weaker, but still important, correlation is that of gold prices and the Swiss franc. The country's political neutrality and the fact that its currency used to be backed by gold have made the franc the currency of choice in times of political uncertainty. From January 2006 until January 2009, USD/CHF and gold prices had a 77% positive correlation. However, the relationship broke down somewhat in September 2005 as the U.S. dollar decoupled from gold price movements. (For further reading, see The Gold Standard Revisited and What Is Wrong With Gold?)
Trading Currencies as a Supplement to Trading Oil or GoldFor seasoned commodity traders, it may also be worthwhile to look at trading currencies as an alternative or a supplement to trading commodities. In addition to being able to capitalize on a similar outlook (e.g. higher oil), traders may also be able to earn interest if they are on 2% margin or higher with most brokers. When trading currencies, you are dealing with countries, and countries have interest rates, of course. For example, a trader who may have bought the AUD/USD in March 2009 would be able to earn up to 3% in interest income if Australian interest rates remained at 3.25% and
Along the same lines, if you shorted AUD/USD to express a short gold view, you would end up paying interest. If you're a commodity trader looking for a bit of a change from the usual pro gold trade (for example), commodity currencies such as the AUD/USD and NZD/USD provide good opportunities worth looking into.
ConclusionIf you want to trade commodity currencies, the best way to use commodity prices in your trading is to always keep one eye on movements in the oil or gold market and the other eye on the currency market to watch how quickly it responds. Due to the slightly delayed impact of these movements on the currency market, there is generally an opportunity to overlay a broader movement that is happening in the commodity market to that of the currency market. Bottom line: It never hurts to be more informed about commodity prices and how they drive currency movements. (For more insight, read The Currency Market Information Edge and Forex: Wading Into The Currency Market.)
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/CommodityCurrencies.asp#ixzz1XYRoxHas
Friday, 26 August 2011
Trade Weighted US dollar Index
The Trade Weighted US dollar Index, also known as the broad index, is a measure of the value of the US Dollar relative to other world currencies. It is similar to the US Dollar Index in that its numerical value is determined as a weighted average of the price of various currencies relative to the dollar, however it differs in which currencies are used and how their relative values are weighted.
HistoryThe trade weighted dollar index was introduced in 1998 for two primary reasons. The first being the introduction of the euro, which eliminated several of the currencies in the standard dollar index; the second being to keep pace with new developments in US trade.[1]
[edit] Included currenciesIn the standard US Dollar Index, a significant weight is given to the euro. In order to more accurately reflect the strength of the dollar relative to other world currencies, the Federal Reserve created the Trade Weighted US Dollar Index,[2] which includes a bigger collection of currencies than the US Dollar Index. The regions included are:
Europe (euro countries)
Canada
Japan
Mexico
China
United Kingdom
Taiwan
Korea
Singapore
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Brazil
Switzerland
Thailand
Philippines
Australia
Indonesia
India
Israel
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Sweden
Argentina
Venezuela
Chile
Colombia
HistoryThe trade weighted dollar index was introduced in 1998 for two primary reasons. The first being the introduction of the euro, which eliminated several of the currencies in the standard dollar index; the second being to keep pace with new developments in US trade.[1]
[edit] Included currenciesIn the standard US Dollar Index, a significant weight is given to the euro. In order to more accurately reflect the strength of the dollar relative to other world currencies, the Federal Reserve created the Trade Weighted US Dollar Index,[2] which includes a bigger collection of currencies than the US Dollar Index. The regions included are:
Europe (euro countries)
Canada
Japan
Mexico
China
United Kingdom
Taiwan
Korea
Singapore
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Brazil
Switzerland
Thailand
Philippines
Australia
Indonesia
India
Israel
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Sweden
Argentina
Venezuela
Chile
Colombia
U.S. Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.
It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared only with
Euro (EUR), 58.6% weight
Japanese Yen (JPY) 12.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight
USDX goes up when the US dollar gains "strength" (value) when compared to other currencies.
USDX started in March 1973, soon after the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system. At its start, the value of the US Dollar Index was 100.000. It has since traded as high as 148.1244 in February 1985, and as low as 70.698 on March 16, 2008, the lowest since its inception in 1973.
The makeup of the "basket" has been altered only once, when several European currencies were subsumed by the Euro at the start of 1999.
It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared only with
Euro (EUR), 58.6% weight
Japanese Yen (JPY) 12.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight
USDX goes up when the US dollar gains "strength" (value) when compared to other currencies.
USDX started in March 1973, soon after the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system. At its start, the value of the US Dollar Index was 100.000. It has since traded as high as 148.1244 in February 1985, and as low as 70.698 on March 16, 2008, the lowest since its inception in 1973.
The makeup of the "basket" has been altered only once, when several European currencies were subsumed by the Euro at the start of 1999.
Monday, 1 August 2011
List of countries by foreign exchange reserves
Foreign exchange reserves (also called Forex reserves) in a strict sense are only the foreign currency deposits held by central banks and monetary authorities. However, the term foreign exchange reserves in popular usage (such as this list) commonly includes foreign exchange and gold, SDRs and IMF reserve position as this total figure is more readily available, however it is accurately deemed as official reserves or international reserves. The list excludes currency swaps conducted by central banks.
These are assets of the central banks which are held in different reserve currencies such as the dollar, euro, yen and pound, and which are used to back its liabilities, e.g. the local currency issued, and the various bank reserves deposited with the central bank, by the government or financial institutions. Before the end of the gold standard, gold was the preferred reserve. Some nations are converting foreign exchange reserves into sovereign wealth funds, which can rival foreign exchange reserves in size.
This is a list of countries and territories by foreign exchange reserves in US dollar equivalence. Some nations have multiple monetary authorities, counted separately, such as the People's Republic of China, which has three (mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau). Exchange rate fluctuations can have significant impact on these numbers. While most nations report in US dollars, a few nations in Eastern Europe report solely in Euros.
These are assets of the central banks which are held in different reserve currencies such as the dollar, euro, yen and pound, and which are used to back its liabilities, e.g. the local currency issued, and the various bank reserves deposited with the central bank, by the government or financial institutions. Before the end of the gold standard, gold was the preferred reserve. Some nations are converting foreign exchange reserves into sovereign wealth funds, which can rival foreign exchange reserves in size.
This is a list of countries and territories by foreign exchange reserves in US dollar equivalence. Some nations have multiple monetary authorities, counted separately, such as the People's Republic of China, which has three (mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau). Exchange rate fluctuations can have significant impact on these numbers. While most nations report in US dollars, a few nations in Eastern Europe report solely in Euros.
List of states by foreign exchange reserves
The list below is based on IMF data - when available; Otherwise - CIA data are indicated. For consistency, forward currency swap contracts are not included in this list until they mature, figures that include them may be higher or lower than those listed here. IMF or other outstanding loans are not shown here, and if accounted for many nations would list lower.
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