Gold Outlook (Prediction)
Insight for Future
Insight for Future
Date: November 24, 2011
Future Target is Expected To approximately $ 1310 per troy oz.
Commentary:
Short-Term: Nov. 28, 2011
In the short-term trade above $1,702 would be a sign of strengthening, while a move above $1,710 signals a bounce that could take Gold up to at least the $1,735.4 (double top neckline) price area.
Last week it was pointed out that Gold had broken down from a bearish ascending wedge, and that it had also broken the neckline of a double top reversal pattern.
Trade below $1,666.5 confirms a continuation of the two week downtrend. Bearish support is given by the short-term 21 day exponential moving average (ema) and medium-term 55ema, which have each turned down. The 21ema crossing down through the 55ema would further confirm weakness.
The next potential support area of significance is from approximately $1,635.52 to $1,634.4, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200ema, respectively. This support zone also includes a lower trend line. The target for the ascending wedge remains $1,603.3.
To recap the 2010 predictions before we move on to 2011..
- Morgan Stanley forecast a base price of $1,200 for gold in 2010 with peaks above $1300.
- Macquarie (largest investment bank in Australia) raised their forecast for gold to $1150 per ounce in 2010 (Dec 09)
- Goldman Sachs announced on December 3rd that it has lifted its 12-month gold price outlook to $1350 per ounce from a previous estimate of $950 (Dec 09)
- Merrill Lynch sees gold at $960 an ounce in 2009 as a whole, rising to $1500 in the next 18 months
In 2011, the bullish view continues,
Most firms believe that macroeconomic conditions such as rising global debt and upward pressure on inflation will cause gold to push higher to new all time highs.
- Goldman believes low U.S. interest rates will continue to underpin the rally in commodities like gold. The firm expects the precious metal futures to climb to $1,690/oz by the end of 2011 and continue to move higher.
- Merrill Lynch predict Gold remains in a secular bull market with projected resistances at $1500-1600/oz and then in the $2000-2300 area. We have raised our long-term targets to $2000 -3000. Major support is $1265 to $1160.
- Morgan Stanley has raised their 2011 gold price forecast in their base case by 14.3%, to an average US$1,315/oz, and in their bull case, which anticipates a more aggressive level of dollar weakness and a protracted period of negative real interest rates, Morgan Stanley has raised their price forecast to USD $1,512/oz from US$1,380/oz.
- Barclays Capital’s MD Paul Horsnell predicts that the gold price is likely to reach $1,850/oz by the end of 2011 due to strong demand from emerging markets and limited supply.
2011-06-14 Standard Chartered $5,000 gold price forecast
An analysis by the Standard Chartered bank suggests that the gold price will triple due to shortages in gold production. The bank's research team looked at the production levels of 345 gold mines and came to the conclusion that the gold production will be only 3.6% annualy over the next five years.
The demand for gold, however, has been growing at a much faster pace, driven by purchases of gold by Asian central banks.
This forecast is unique for two reasons: first, most gold price predictions are based on inflationary and crisis scenarios, while this one looks at the supply-demand equation. Second, banks usually tend to be rather conservative in their gold price predictions.
2011-06-10 Superfund gold price forecast: up 50% to 100% by 2014
Superfund's Aaron Smith expects gold to increase 50% to 100% by 2014, as measured in major currencies. He also thinks that an ounce of silver will trade for around $100 within the same time frame.
Reuter's analyst Wang Tao predicts silver to be worth $55 within the next few years.
Recent developments, such as the legalization of gold and silver as official currency in Utah or the purchase of $1bn worth of gold by the University of Texas and similar big institutions may accelerate this development.
2011-04-22 Morningstar gold price forecast $1,200 in 2014 and $1,236 in 2015
Morningstar, a leading U.S. provider of investment research, has lowered its gold price prediction to $1,200 in 2014 and $1,236 in 2015.
Key points:
- The now booming Gold ETFs may not continue to attract such tremendous amounts of inflows over the long run
- Investment demand for gold from China and India should continue as Indian and Chinese middle classes grow
- Central banks (China, India, Russia) are buying gold en masse now. This trend cannot be extrapolated in the long run
2011-04-14 GFMS 2011 gold price forecast $1,600 by end of 2011
GFMS, a leading global precious metals consultancy, released its "2011 Gold Survey". GFMS expects gold to reach $1,600 by the end of 2011. GFMS's Philip Klapwijk commented on the survey for Minewebhttp://www.goldinmind.com/gold-updates-news/gold-price-forecasts.html
Further analysis (to be continue)
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